니키 헤일리 전 유엔 주재 미국 대사는 14일 "현 시점에 대북 제재를 완화하더라도 김정은 북한 국무위원장의 행동은 변화하지 않을 것"이라고 말했다.
헤일리 전 대사는 이날 서울 장충동 호텔신라에서 개막한 아시안리더십컨퍼런스(ALC) 기조연설에서 "북한은 그동안 제재를 풀어주면 비핵화를 하겠다고 약속을 했지만, 그 약속은 모두 지켜지지 않았다. 미국은 그런 경험을 갖고 있다"면서 이같이 말했다. 헤일리 전 대사는 이어 "김정은이 결정을 내려야 한다. 김정은이 만약 변화를 원한다면 (비핵화)협상 테이블에 나와야 한다"고 했다.
헤일리 전 대사는 북한이 최근 감행한 두 차례의 미사일 도발에 대해 "단거리 탄도 미사일을 발사했다. 이건 유엔 안보리 결의에 위배된다"고 말했다. 그는 다만 "(장거리 미사일이 아니기 때문에)김정은과 도널드 트럼프 대통령이 한 약속을 위반한 것은 아니다"고 했다.
그는 북한을 협상장으로 불러내기 위해 보다 더 강력한 제재를 도입하는 방안에 대해선 "도발 행위를 더 한다면 다시 예전으로 돌아가서 보다 더 높은 수위의 제재를 할 것"이라면서 "이렇게 되면 김정은과 북한 주민들은 더 큰 피해를 입게 된다"고 했다. 그러면서 "북한의 도발에 국제사회는 겁먹지 않는다는 것을 김정은은 알아야 한다"고 했다.
'대북 식량 지원'에 대해선 "김정은이 결정을 내려야 할 때"라면서 "그동안 국제기구와 역내 국가는 북한을 돕기위해 나서왔다. 이제는 김정은 스스로가 북한 주민을 도와야 한다"고 말했다.
헤일리 전 대사는 미국과 무역전쟁 중인 중국에 대해 "절대 사회를 개방하지 않고, 민주주의 국가가 되지 않을 것"이라고 내다봤다. 그는 "시진핑 정권이 생각하는 중국은 권위주의 체제에서 자유주의로 가는 게 아니라, 기술 효율화를 통해 일당 독재 국가로 가는 게 목표"라면서 "중국의 자유화를 기대했던 우리의 상식을 포기해야 한다"고도 했다. 그러면서 "중국은 내부를 관리하기 위해 외부에서 위기 상황을 초래하면서 민족주의를 끌어내는 방식으로 공포를 유발하며 세계를 위험하게 만들고 있다"며 "중국은 역내 국가에 안보 위협이 되고 있다. 전 세계가 중국을 다르게 봐야 한다"고 했다.
미·중 무역 협상이 결렬된 데 대해선 "양쪽 모두 협상을 타결하고자 하는 의지가 있지만, 중국 측에서 지식재산권 도난에 대해 책임을 지려고 하지 않아 타결이 안되고 있다"면서 "중국은 계속 지재권을 훔치는 부정 행위(cheating)를 하겠다는 것인데, 이건 더 이상 용인할 수 없는 문제"라고 말했다.
그는 다만 "중국이 반드시 미국의 적이 될거라 생각하진 않는다"면서 "중국과의 관계를 잘 관리하는 것은 복잡한 퍼즐 맞추기다. 미국은 항상 중국과 협력할 것이다. 그게 우리 이익에 부합한다"고 했다.
다음은 헤일리 전 대사의 영어 연설 전문.
The Chosun Ilbo: Asian Leadership Conference 2019
Seoul, Korea
May 14, 2019
Realities of Today's China
When I represented the United States at the United Nations, what I saw day after day is how much misperception there is in the relationship between America and the world. People from other countries commonly misread American motives, and Americans often don't grasp why events abroad should interest them.
Today I'd like to offer some thoughts about America's role abroad, while concentrating on the problems arising from China's growing power. These are not routine problems. And they are not ones with a close historical analogy.
The most important development in world affairs in recent decades has been the rise of China as a great power economically and militarily.
In the West, as this occurred, certain ideas took hold. It became widely believed that with economic reforms and integration into the world economy, China would have to liberalize politically at home and become a "responsible stakeholder" in the international system.
This was sometimes called "convergence theory." It was comforting to think that China, as it grew wealthier, would become similar to us in its domestic political practices and its foreign relations. But it was false comfort. Let's face it: China's President Xi Jinping has effectively killed the notion of convergence.
China is growing economically without democratizing. On the contrary, its government is thoroughly ideological and increasingly repressive. Its military ambitions are not just regional and defensive; they are global and designed to intimidate. Meanwhile, the distinction between civilian and military technology is largely disappearing in the world, and President Xi has announced that all commercial activity of Chinese companies should aim to serve the country's military interests.
So, I'm here to tell you that the long-standing conventional wisdom about China is dead. Wishful thinking has been overtaken by events.
China has great importance to the U.S. - for positive and negative reasons. It's a huge market, highly prized by American companies and crucial to the world economy. But we Americans cannot allow our strong interest in good relations with China to blind us to a reality that is not our fault and not within our control. The Chinese government defines itself as a foe of Western liberal democracy and the upholder of its own brand of Communist nationalism and state-directed economics. The strategic purposes of China's leaders are unfriendly, far-reaching and deeply rooted in an authoritarian worldview.
Since World War II, the United States has been the world's greatest power from a number of viewpoints: economic output, scientific discovery, military strength and cultural influence.
In the Cold War and especially since the Soviet Union's disintegration in 1991, the U.S. has been a world leader to a degree unmatched ever. Not by the Roman Empire, not by the British Empire. But America does not imitate history's great empires. We are not an empire. We take pride in being a democratic country that respects the rights of other countries and peoples. Our foreign policy has been guided by principles. We do not just do whatever we can get away with.
One principle that has guided American foreign policy is that countries should respect what belongs to other countries. After World War II, the United States provided aid to rebuild Germany and Japan. We didn't steal their resources. More recently, when we led the coalition that overthrew Saddam Hussein, we spent great sums to help reconstruct Iraq and we didn't steal a drop of its oil.
At home, Americans live under the rule of law. Our law is not just a tool of the powerful. It is a real constraint on power. This shapes the way Americans think and act, and it affects the way we operate in world affairs.
America puts a high priority on resolving disputes peacefully, wherever possible. Unfortunately, it's not always possible.
We respect private contracts - business contracts - and expect others to do the same. We respect property rights, including intellectual property. It is a profound part of American culture that we believe in moving forward technologically by inventing and innovating, not by stealing other people's ideas and relying on reverse engineering.
The world economy has grown spectacularly since World War II. The foundation for all that growth is a platform that America has been instrumental in building and protecting. Its main elements are the maintenance of international peace and stability, freedom of navigation by sea and air worldwide, and the creation of global communications and computer networks.
If America did not play its leadership role in the world, life would be far worse for Americans and for countless others. There would be far less trade and investment. There would be far less overseas study and tourism. Our lives would be more constricted and less safe. Our liberties would be under pressure.
Our country is not perfect. Being human, Americans don't always live up to our principles or make the wisest decisions. But all in all, we can be proud of the kind, free, flourishing and self-improving society we have built for ourselves at home, and what we've done to make the world more peaceful, secure, prosperous and respectful of the rights of men and women.
Now, where does China fit into this picture?
Only a few years ago, China was widely viewed in the West as a poor undeveloped country.
Then it began to reform its economy. It applied lessons from the success of market economies, and the results have been stunning growth. In 1980, China's gross domestic product was $0.2 trillion. Last year it was over $14 trillion -- 70 times greater.
As a result of this amazing boom, it became common to praise China as a model. Admirers described China as a great combination of selective free-market practices and centralized guidance from a government that was decisive and strategic.
Of course, it's easier for dictators than for leaders of democratic countries to be decisive and long-range in perspective. One wouldn't expect such praise of China to come from people who know and appreciate freedom. In fact, it came from people who didn't see China clearly and didn't appreciate the intensity of its authoritarianism.
As impressive as its growth has been, however, China now faces serious difficulties.
It has created environmental disasters for itself, including the dangerously low air quality in Beijing. Chinese leaders don't know how to handle the social dislocations they have caused. Huge numbers of people have moved from the countryside into cities, though the government hasn't given them the permission they need to get housing and education. China's economy has been slowing. Its rate of growth in 2018 is the lowest official annual rate in nearly 30 years, and the official rate very likely overstates the actual growth rate.
The government hasn't loosened its authoritarian grip - on the contrary. President Xi has concentrated greater power in his own hands. He has done so, thanks to the exploitation of high-tech tools of control on an unprecedented scale.
President Xi is creating an Orwellian surveillance state, using facial recognition and big-data technologies capable of monitoring huge masses of people -- spotting individuals, following them and recording their activities. President Xi's commitment to his surveillance state is a motive behind China's striving for world leadership in 5G networking and artificial intelligence.
This use of high technology to achieve an unprecedented level of totalitarian supervision of hundreds of millions of Chinese tells us something profound about China's leaders. It highlights their paramount strategic goal, which is the preservation of Chinese Communist Party rule. For them, politics outweighs all other considerations.
This is hard for many Americans to grasp, because it's not how we think about our own country. Our Declaration of Independence says the government's highest aim is to secure the rights of individuals to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Through free markets, we exercise our liberty and pursue happiness. In other words, politics in the United States serves, and is subordinate to, freedom, including economic freedom.
In China today, it's the other way around. Economics serves politics. The purpose of their economic policy is not to make people free, comfortable and happy, much less empower them to demand a voice in their own government. The aim is to secure not the well being of citizens, but the authority of the Chinese Communist Party. The aim is political -- the strengthening of the government's power at home and the country's power in the world.
China's foreign trade and investment policies build on this foundation. Everyone who does business with China does so within this concept of how economics serves politics. American and other foreign business people generally have no interest in China's politics. But China has organized itself to unify business and politics. Foreign business people should understand: What counts is not what you intend but what China intends.
This creates an important lack of symmetry when officials negotiate about trade and investment. The Americans think business, while the Chinese think power politics.
In past decades, Chinese Communist Party strategists debated the merits of various paths to national greatness. Some championed bide-your-time policies. They emphasized private incentives for business success and China's integration into the world economy. Their ultimate goal was to increase the power of the Chinese Communist Party and the state's military, but threatening words or actions were to be avoided.
Other Chinese strategists advocated a different approach, more assertive, nationalistic and militaristic. Since Xi Jinping came to power and consolidated his leadership, it is clear that the latter approach has prevailed. His government's aggressive pursuit of national greatness includes intensive indoctrination on two themes. First, Chinese grievances against the foreign powers responsible for China's "century of humiliation." And second, China's debt to its Communist Party for rescue from that plight.
President Xi's willingness to push around China's neighbors is plain to see. Examples include China's seizure of islands in the South China Sea and construction of military facilities there in violation of promises not to militarize. To other countries with conflicting claims and interests, China not only speaks harshly, but acts forcefully. It has punished Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia for their position on maritime disputes, cutting their underwater acoustic cables and attacking their fishing fleets. It threatens Taiwan, using military aircraft to violate Taiwan's airspace. It manipulates Taiwanese politicians and journalists.
Under President Xi, China has been intimidating foreign as well as domestic critics by kidnapping them abroad. It has snatched people in Thailand, Taiwan and Hong Kong. The kidnapped critics include citizens of Sweden and the United Kingdom.
Chinese officials say they have no interest in the politics of foreign countries, but they do interfere, bribing and otherwise corrupting foreign officials. Chinese political influence scandals in Australia, New Zealand, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Angola and elsewhere have caused widespread outrage.
In addition, China subverts academic freedom in universities in the United States and elsewhere through its government-funded Confucius Institutes. These organizations spread propaganda and sometimes manage to squelch discussion of topics embarrassing to China, such as the conquest of Tibet and the Xinjiang province concentration camps for "reeducating" an estimated one million Chinese Muslims, known as Uighurs.
Chinese companies boldly steal intellectual property from foreigners. U.S. Justice Department officials report that the Chinese government systematically directs its nationals to steal technology from U.S. companies.
China's famous Belt and Road Initiative relies heavily on corrupt financing arrangements that burden foreign governments with debt they cannot afford to repay.
All of these examples of China's aggressiveness are worrisome. But there's one I want to highlight that does not get enough attention. Chinese officials refer to it as the civil-military integration policy. In the words of the Financial Times, it is "an instruction by the Chinese Communist party that new technologies developed by the private sector must be shared with the military." In other words, the Chinese government requires even its privately-owned companies to work for the Chinese military. President Xi personally announced the policy, and he chairs the commission that oversees its implementation.
It bears repeating: In China, even supposedly private companies are part of the military establishment. That means business with Chinese companies is not just business. Corporate executives in America and elsewhere commonly insist that there's a bold line dividing what they do and what political or military leaders do. But China's civil-military integration policy makes that line blurry at best. In some areas, it erases it altogether.
In particular, corporate executives in high-tech fields can no longer claim to live in a purely commercial world, sheltered from politics and military matters. Whether they like it or not, their circumstances have changed. As commercial companies have now come to develop much of the world's most advanced technology, they are necessarily involved in military matters. This is especially the case if they do business in China.
From the time of our emergence as a leading nation, America has never had to deal with a potential military challenger that was also our most important trading partner and a key player in the world economy. In the Cold War, we confronted the Soviet Union, but it was economically tiny compared to today's China. History offers us no close analogies.
American strategists are required to think creatively about China. Their first task is to shed disproven notions.
China is not converging with the West. It is not becoming less ideological. It is not becoming open or democratic. As Princeton scholar Aaron Friedberg has written, "What Xi Jinping and his colleagues have in mind, is not a transitional phase of authoritarian rule to be followed by eventual liberalization, but an efficient, technologically empowered, and permanent one-party dictatorship."
Chinese leaders are open about their view of the United States and our political principles. They do not conceal their hostility and their determination to reject what they view as arrogant efforts to impose on them Western ideas about human rights, democracy and international legal "norms." They scoff at talk of win-win solutions in world politics. They believe the world is inherently hierarchical and it is past due for China to predominate and others to give way.
Americans have to look with deep regret at the state of our relationship with China. The United States strove for decades to cultivate friendship. Presidents Carter and Reagan both worked to forge cooperative ties through transfer of high technology to support modernization and economic growth. The U.S. helped China enter the World Trade Organization on lenient terms. We gave it access to our markets even though China did not reciprocate.
China's increasingly hostile policies cannot be explained as a reaction to unfriendliness from our side.
China has become our foremost national security concern. Does this mean it's America's enemy? No. Not necessarily. At one and the same time it is a principal trade and investment player, our chief strategic competitor, and our most serious potential military antagonist.
How to regulate our trade relations with China is a major issue now. But our policy should recognize that the implications extend well beyond trade and economics. They reach the heart of our interest in national security.
Managing our relationship with China is a complex strategic puzzle, and the stakes could be life or death.
China's leaders are committed to repressive policies at home. That commitment reflects their fear that a free Chinese people would oust their Communist Party rulers, as free people have done throughout the world. The result is a vicious circle of actual repression and potential instability.
One way Chinese leaders manage this danger to their rule is by provoking crises abroad and appealing to their people's nationalism. In this way, the Chinese leaders' fear of their own people makes the world more dangerous.
I want to repeat: The longstanding conventional wisdom about China's liberalization and moderation is dead.
We should observe China with care. We should see China without distorting preconceptions. And we should think about China critically, creatively, and courageously.
Thank you.