The trilateral summit between South Korea, China, and Japan is scheduled to take place in Seoul at the end of May. This will be the first meeting in four years and five months since the summit held in Chengdu, China, in December 2019. The three countries agreed to hold annual summits on a rotating basis starting in 2008, but various issues, such as territorial and historical disputes, have hindered smooth organization. In 2012, controversy over the Senkaku Islands/Diaoyudao Islands led to a three-year hiatus in the meetings, and since 2019, the spread of COVID-19 and other factors has posed challenges.
Over the past four years, the geopolitical landscape in East Asia has significantly shifted. After North Korea provided Russia with a shipment of weapons and ammunition amounting to 10,000 containers, the close military ties between North Korea and Russia pose a threat not only to the Korean Peninsula but also to global security. Russia, currently engaged in attacking Ukraine, has lessened concerns about ammunition shortages, while North Korea, with Russian assistance, rapidly advances the nuclear attack system, which could directly threaten not only South Korea and Japan but also the United States. According to a Washington Post editorial titled ‘Putin’s Russia throws a lifeline to North Korea,’ the recent removal of a panel of experts monitoring North Korea’s violations of UN sanctions by Russia is seen as “a gift from Russian President Vladimir Putin to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.” Russia also has been blatantly ignoring UN sanctions by sending oil-laden ships to North Korea.
The international landscape today is incomparable to that of four years ago. The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which erupted two years ago, shows no signs of abating, while the Israel-Hamas conflict threatens to escalate across the entire Middle East. The Middle East conflict could be catastrophic for all three countries of South Korea, China, and Japan, as most of their oil energy imports depend on this region. China’s potential invasion of Taiwan also raises concerns about a US-China war in the Pacific. Over the past four years, China has been passive in meetings with South Korea and Japan, raising issues such as cooperation with the U.S. and the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system. However, it is said that China is being proactive in pushing for this upcoming summit. This suggests that the volatility of the existing security and economic order is more serious than ever.
The trilateral relationship between South Korea, China, and Japan involves both cooperation and inevitable conflicts. Amid the current highly volatile global situation, opting for conflict instead of cooperation would benefit no one. While differences in stance between China and South Korea/Japan persist regarding the North Korean issue, there would likely be no country willing to welcome Russia’s military intervention. Dialogue and cooperation among the leaders of the three countries are crucial for regional stability as well as for addressing global challenges. Especially in difficult times, it is essential for them to come together.
