With South Korea’s June 3 presidential election just days away, a conservative unification between Kim Moon-soo of the People Power Party and Lee Jun-seok of the Reform Party—once considered the bloc’s top priority—now appears increasingly unlikely.
Although May 28, the eve of early voting, had widely been viewed as the last viable window for a deal, Lee has refused to step aside, solidifying the outlook that a split in conservative votes is now unavoidable.
Recognizing this, the People Power Party has begun shifting gears, moving away from efforts to forge unity and instead embracing a strategy to win in a three-way race.
“Unification isn’t something that can be decided by a mechanical deadline,” said Shin Dong-wook, senior spokesperson for the Kim campaign, on May 28. “But we’ve already passed the stage where negotiations or contact can resolve things.”
Party leaders appear to share that view. They’re now banking on rallying conservative voters with a strong appeal to avoid “wasting” their votes. The campaign’s message is clear: casting a ballot for Lee Jun-seok could hand the presidency to liberal front-runner Lee Jae-myung, and only Kim Moon-soo has a viable path to victory.
Lee, however, has made his position just as clear. Speaking at an emergency press conference the day before, he flatly rejected any prospect of unity.
“There will be no candidate unification with those responsible for the declaration of martial law,” he said, shutting the door on compromise and calling on Kim to drop out instead.
His remarks have led party insiders to conclude that further talks are futile and that the window for consolidation has firmly closed.
Still, opinion polling suggests that without unification, the conservative bloc faces an uphill battle.
A Realmeter poll commissioned by Energy Kyunje News and conducted May 26–27 shows Lee Jae-myung in the lead with 49.2% support, followed by Kim Moon-soo at 36.8% and Lee Jun-seok at 10.3%.
The automated phone survey, conducted among 1,003 respondents using a 100% wireless sample, had a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level and a response rate of 10.1%. (Details are available on the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.)
Because the poll was the last to be released before the official blackout period on survey publication, its results carry added weight. If the conservative split continues, the data suggest Lee Jae-myung could clinch an outright majority—an outcome that would seal the race.
Adding to the turmoil, Lee Jun-seok is now under fire for controversial remarks made during a televised debate. He quoted explicit and violent expressions involving women’s bodies, sparking backlash across party lines.
The Democratic Party of Korea and the Democratic Labor Party issued strong statements condemning the language as “verbal violence unfit for public discourse” and demanded his immediate withdrawal from the race.
Lee has dismissed the criticism, accusing his opponents of selective outrage. “The silence of the progressive camp on misconduct within their own ranks is a kind of hypocrisy that can’t go unchallenged,” he said. Still, political observers warn the controversy may alienate moderate or undecided voters.
Choi Chang-ryul, a politics professor at Yongin University, said Kim Moon-soo’s refusal to distance himself from former President Yoon Suk-yeol—whose impeachment triggered this snap election—will likely make it difficult to broaden his appeal in the final stretch, especially without a unity deal.
Political commentator Choi Soo-young added that the best timing for unification had already passed.
“When Lee Jun-seok’s support was rising during the first and second debates, that was the moment to strike a deal,” he said.
“Now, the task is to prevent Lee Jae-myung from winning a majority and to bring Kim and Lee’s combined vote share as close to his as possible.”
